The UK Government has released the 2023 edition of the National Risk Register (NRR), recognizing a whole host of new risks since the last version was released in 2020. Indeed, a total of 89 threats are considered within the document, with the addition of new risks such as a global disruption to energy supplies added since the invasion of Ukraine.
In this edition, a pandemic was considered the most likely risk with a ‘catastrophic’ impact, with a 5-25% chance of occurrence. This shows that it is still a pre-occupation of those government departments contributing to the NRR, following the long-lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
It is clear then that the risk of another pandemic is not being underestimated but, of course, when assessing future risks there also needs to be a sense of clear-sightedness to eliminate any chance of a recency bias and make sure we are assessing the full spectrum of threats and risks.
Therefore, other ‘significant’ risks occupying the 5-25% banding include:
- Conventional attacks on infrastructure
- Severe space weather
- Low temperatures and snow
- An emerging infectious disease
- Nuclear miscalculation, not involving the UK.
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