BCI Horizon Scan Report 2024

We are pleased to introduce the 2024 BCI Horizon Scan Report, one of the most eagerly anticipated reports in our portfolio. We extend our thanks to Noggin for their continued sponsorship of this year’s report. This year’s report falls at a critical point. We are in a ‘super election’ year with more of the global population heading to the polls than ever before with 64 elections taking place globally. This is giving rise to significant civil unrest in some regions, while others are having to deal with the devastating impacts of cross-border conflict – both having severe knock-on effects on global supply chains, cyber-security, staff physical and mental wellbeing, and company balance sheets. In addition to a complex geopolitical backdrop, other businesses are having to deal with the reality of climate change. At the time this report is published, Spain is dealing with the aftermath of its worst flood in modern history, blamed on extreme sea temperatures in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, El Niño continues to bring extreme heat to parts of Asia, with deaths reported in Thailand and demand for electricity reaching a record high due to the demand for air conditioning.

However, while these events may have been dominating headlines, it is the less headline-grabbing disruptions which are having the most extreme effects on organizations. For the first time in this report’s history, financial fraud is at the top of the list of disruptions for 2024 with a risk score of 16.1. This came as somewhat of a surprise given the impact of known cyber attacks over the past year. However, the UK Financial Ombudsman reported a rise of 43.3% in reported financial fraud cases in the most recent quarter, while also revealing the complexity of those frauds was increasing too. Globally, PWC also reported that procurement fraud is the third greatest cause for financial disruption over the past year.