Business continuity and resilience have long been built on a set of implicit assumptions, for instance that threats are identifiable, that preparation follows predictable scenarios and that disruptions can be contained. These assumptions are increasingly embedded in organizational practices, from risk registers to crisis simulations and leadership structures.
But in today’s environment, these assumptions no longer hold. Organizations operate in a landscape defined by polycrisis, a condition where risks are interconnected, overlapping and capable of triggering cascading effects across systems. Cyber incidents amplify geopolitical tensions, climate shocks disrupt supply chains, and localised failures escalate into global disruptions. In this context, risks do not emerge in isolation, nor do they remain confined to their origin.
This paper challenges five common assumptions underpinning
business continuity and resilience:
- That modern threats are visible and containable
- That crisis exercises always prepare organizations
- That climate risks are future concerns rather than present
- disruptions
- That external shocks remain outside organizational boundaries
- That existing leadership structures are sufficient in times of crisis
- Well, think again.
Drawing on research into systemic risk, hybrid threats, climate resilience and resource orchestration, this paper argues that resilience must shift from prediction to adaptability. Rather than focusing on isolated risks, organizations must understand interdependencies, identify critical vulnerabilities and develop the capability to respond dynamically under pressure.
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